Participants who are planning to join in-person in Glasgow, please note the deadline to secure your accommodation through Glasgow City Marketing Bureau is 13 September 2021
Kathryn Whitman (University of Houston), Mark Dierckxsens (BIRA-IASB), Philip Quinn (Leidos)
TDM type: 1. Event Impact
A wide array of solar energetic particle (SEP) acceleration, transport and prediction models are currently being developed in the heliophysics community that could be valuable for space weather forecast operations. However, models are only usable in an operational sense
if they have proven predictive capability. Models must therefore be thoroughly validated and their skill quantified. The wide variety of SEP model types developed by the research community and the array of provided quantities pose a challenge for meaningful, fair, and consistent validation. Metrics must be selected appropriately, as well as choices of training versus validation data sets, calculation of skill scores, and selection of a standard for comparison. The proposed TDM will be part of an ongoing series of meetings on SEP prediction and validation that were held at the 2018 and 2019 SHINE meetings,ESWW2018, and the 2020 ISWAT meeting. Predictions for a set of campaign events produced by a wide range of different types of models have been assembled and a preliminary validation framework has been constructed. The next step is to establish a community consensus on how to validate these (and future) results. Thus the aim of the TDM is to discuss how to validate the wide variety of SEP models individually and as well as comparatively in a campaign. We will also present the SEP Scoreboard (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/challenges/sep.php} - an online tool hosted at the CCMC that displays predictions from a wide range of SEP forecasting models. The SEP Scoreboard is now live and in beta production as it is used daily in operations by SRAG. We envisage using the Event Impact meeting format with short introductions by Mark Dierckxsens (BIRA-IASB) and Kathryn Whitman (NASA JSC SRAG) followed by a general discussion among the audience. Participants will be encouraged to show 1or 2 slides in support to address the issues encumbering the validation between the different SEP model predictions.
Hotel booking deadline:
13 September 2021
01 October 2021